A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
